What Is My (CommanderHate’s) Opinion of Denis Dyack’s One Console Future?
From Eduardo
Full Question: “What is your (as in, a developer) vision of the whole one game console future of gaming as envisioned by Denis Dyack? Is it a viable market model or you think that eventually some other manufacturer would step into the market? What would be your pros and cons? And finally, if this prevision ever comes true, which companies could make a joint effort to build it and why?”
-Eduardo
Well, first everyone should read his full statement to get an idea of exactly why he thinks that a one console future is inevitable. To summarize, he believes that the current market is unsustainable and that it is for the good of developers and gamers alike if we all migrate to one console. He mentions things like 100% market penetration, everyone understanding how to develop for that one console, drop in pricing, higher quality, etc.
Now, Denis Dyack seems like a smart guy, but like all smart people he’s able to fully construct thoughts that sound like well thought out ideas when he’s really pulling them straight out of his ass. I believe this to be one of those cases. The fact of the matter is, whenever one company or console or anything has a monopoly on the entire market, you end up with corruption, cut corners and crappy decisions. Yes, in a Utopian world, the one console future seems like a grand idea. If every console developer got together and shared all their information, they might make an amazing machine. However, they would not make a machine that everyone wants.
You see, consumers want choice. That is how multiple types of machines are able to survive. Some people want amazing graphics and the absolute latest hardware. They buy a PS3 because it has blu-ray player and a “Cell” processor. Some want to play fun games with their friends over a well maintained network, they buy a XBox 360. Some just want to have fun playing wacky games and they don’t care too much about the graphics. They buy a Wii. Let’s analyze each console real quick (and yes, I realize I’m ignoring hand helds, I’ll mention them a bit later).
The PS3 model is semi-unsustainable. They lose a lot of money on every machine sold, and in order to keep up with the other cheaper consoles, they will need to drop the price at some point or risk being booted out of the big boy’s club. Apparently making and selling the PS3 has cost them all of the profits they made on the PS2, which puts Sony in a real bad spot. Would Sony have benefited from a one console future? Possibly, but almost none of the technologies that make the PS3 shine would be present in it (due to cost), and those who are hardware junkies would lose out on their blu-ray player and likely become disinterested.
The XBox 360 model is doing just fine. They now make money on their consoles and the price of production becomes cheaper by the minute (hence the latest price drops). Their on-line network generates a constant stream of revenue and they’ve been able to use all the money from this to secure exclusive games to attract new audiences in other countries (Tales of Vesperia and Japan for instance). Would the 360 benefit from a unified console plan? Well, they would certainly benefit from the experience that the other console developers would bring to the table, however Microsoft is a company that is in this business to dominate. They would not be a big fan of sharing technologies and working together to make something bigger because they want to own that something bigger. What can I say, it’s the American way…
The Wii is doing amazingly well. They actually make a profit on every Wii sold, and they continue to sell Wiis at breakneck speeds compared to their competitors. Nintendo is essentially the winner at this point in the console war. Their only issue is that while people buy their consoles, many don’t buy their games. The only games that sell well on the Wii are Nintendo’s first party titles. Something that the other developers are becoming wary of. What good is a console if no one will buy the games you make for it? Nintendo is clearly doing a lot of things right on the hardware side. Low cost, innovative peripherals, a new fun way to play games. However, they’re doing something dreadfully wrong if other developers can’t sell their games on it. Would Nintendo benefit from a one console future? Not in the slightest. They’re winning the console war and their games are the ones that sell best on their console. They have no reason to share their success with anyone else.
Do consumers benefit from a one console future? In short, no. Here’s why.
Whenever there is a monopoly, the people who buy the product are always the ones to suffer. With only one console to buy, there will be no choice for the end user. You either buy that console or you find a new hobby. If the technophile can’t get their latest and greatest hardware fix from the PS3 side of things, they won’t buy it. If the multiplayer fan discovers that the one console has decided to focus on single player as opposed to multiplayer games then they won’t buy it. If the Wii fan discovers that the one console doesn’t have an innovative and intuitive interface, they won’t buy it.
So let’s say that they’re somehow able to put ALL those things into this one amazing console. Let’s assume that somehow, all these different technologies are able to come together and form the Voltron of consoles and that everyone is happy with it. Well, chances are, no one would be able to afford it, and more likely than not, they would have to sell at such a ridiculous loss that no company could sustain itself while selling it. What you would eventually see is all the features and expensive hardware stripped out, the innovative stuff worn down to classic old stuff that they can sell for pennies on the dollar, and what you would be left with is one of those imitation piece of crap consoles that China spews out by the boat full.
Much like God, you would need a united console developer to be all powerful, all knowing and benevolent. As we all know, absolute power corrupts absolutely, and no human being can know everything. To have both those powers and in addition be benevolent is a veritable impossibility. A one console future will not exist because it cannot exist. At least not in a free market society like the one we have. Now, if we ever end up in City 17, I’m sure we could have a one console future, but trust me. You wouldn’t like it, and neither would any developer.
As a developer, we want the choice to be able to make games for the console that suits our taste best. Maybe we’re feeling like innovating and want to use the motion controls on the Wii. Maybe we want to make a blockbuster new tech game on the PS3. Maybe we just want to relax for a year and make a cool low-budget game for the iPhone. We have choices because of these different consoles. More importantly, we get business because of these consoles. If they want a port of a game from the Playstation 3 to the PSP, that’s a whole new job that can keep a game developer afloat for months. If a company wants to simultaneously release a game to all the consoles but they don’t have tech for the XBox 360, another game developer is able to keep 10 of its employees in a job because they do have that tech and would be happy to help them port the game. Developers need these competing consoles because it provides a lot of job opportunities that wouldn’t exist without them. Many of these development studios will go on to create amazing games in the future, games that wouldn’t exist if they weren’t able to stay afloat by doing ports and other minor things for other game companies.
Denis makes a grave error when he says: “Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo have put tremendous resources into trying to make the best hardware, including spending significant amounts of money trying to get exclusive mega-titles like Grand Theft Auto on their system first. Despite all this, it’s still not enough. The economics of the proprietary models seem to point toward spending more money and receving fewer returns with each generation, with no clear winner.”
Where is the error? Well, it’s in the assumption that there is no clear winner. There is a huge winner in this battle for the hearts and souls of gamers. That winner is you. When they compete, you win. You get choices (great and grand choices). Some of you will buy all the consoles, some will only buy one. A few have yet to be reached and have chosen none of them (or you prefer handhelds, which also have great selections). When large corporations compete, we all win, because they have to try and innovate in order to make money. There will never be a clear winner in the console wars, and that should make us all smile.
If there ever is a clear winner in the console war, it may take years for a new developer to be able to dethrone them. When they are dethroned, they will attempt a comeback and it just might be as glorious as Nintendo’s comeback with the Wii.
Well, we can hope.
A one-console future is a future we can hopefully avoid, because it’s clearly a future in which we would all lose.